JANUARY | FEBRUARY 2015
Almond Facts 7
trees translated into a harvest that caught the industry by surprise. The reason? This California drought is unprecedented. Most
concerning is that the foreseeable future does not instill confdence in additional supply. I am writing this report in the middle of the
driest January on record. Even if we are blessed with rain and snow in February and March, the 2015 crop will once again be small.
UC Davis research indicates the greatest drought impact occurs in the year after the drought. If we are water constrained
again this summer, we should similarly expect the 2016 crop to be small. The promise of greater groundwater
regulation indicates water challenges and corresponding tight almond supply will dominate
the industry expectations for the foreseeable future.
I trust almond growers will agree we are in unique times. There was
an extraordinary rise in demand driven by
Blue Diamond
product
innovation, brand-building advertising, and health messaging
from the industry-funded Almond Board of California
research programs. In appreciating the uniqueness of
California’s current drought and water challenges,
our future almond yield outlook is different.
Tight supply will now dominate prices.
Given that almonds still remain a value
relative to other tree nuts, we are
experiencing the new normal
for almond prices.
$2.25
$2.75
$3.25
$3.75
$4.25
$4.75
$5.25
$5.75
$6.25
Hazelnuts
Pistachios
Walnuts
Almonds
Cashews
2012
2013
2014
2015
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