6 Almond Facts
SEPTEMBER | OCTOBER 2014
President’s Corner
Mark Jansen
President and CEO
The idea that actions speak louder than words is an old market truism. This is particularly apt for the
almond industry. In previous years, if you listened to coffee shop discussion, you could believe that almonds
were only sold at the peak of the market, even if that peak was only a couple of weeks long. When you looked
at state averages and fnal handler returns, it was obvious there was more bravado than perfect timing.
This year could be unique in
that California is truly reluctant
to sell this crop. Comparatively
little business has been done
this summer. In my August
18 Almond Insights video, I
predicated that 2014 shipments
and percent crop commitments
would be at a record low. In
past years, this would have been
seen as a sign of weak demand.
This year, it will be a sign of
weak supply.
The 2014 Nonpareil crop will be
signifcantly less than the NASS
Objective Estimate. Statewide,
the crop is down 15 percent or
more. There is less chipping
and shriveling than expected,
however, rejects from NOW and
ants appear to be the challenge.
To put the size of the 2014
crop in perspective, pollenizer
harvests will need to exceed last
year to achieve a total crop of
1.9 billion pounds. The early
pollenizer harvest results appear
to be better than Nonpareil, but
it will be diffcult to match last
year’s crop. We expect a crop
well under the record NASS
forecast of 2.1 billion pounds.
Looking at recent years, a crop
under 1.9 billion would still be
within the range of error.
“I pay less attention to what men say. I just watch what they do.”
- Andrew Carnegie
NASS Objective Estimate and Final Receipt
2011
2012
2013
2014
NASS
1,950
2,100
1,850
2,100 Estimate
2,025
1,880
2,010
Objective Estimate
Final Receipt
Actual?
August Industry Commitments by CropYear
2009
34.3%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
35%
33%
31%
29%
27%
25%
31.6%
29.7%
26.9%
30.1%
25.8%